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Latest update: 24 December 2020
Brexit – EU-UK agreement: state of play
The negotiators of the European Union (EU) and of the United Kingdom (UK) reached an agreement on a new partnership on 24 December 2020. This agreement contains agreements on the rules that will apply between the EU and the UK from 1 January 2021. The European Parliament and the member states still have to agree to the agreement. The process for this will start very soon.
See also: https://www.gov.uk/
Just an update regarding the Brexit
The United Kingdom is definitely not going to extend the transition phase of the Brexit. This has been announced by the British minister Michael Gove. On January 1, 2021, they regain control and regain their political and economic independence. Many talks will follow between the EU and the UK in the coming months. Apart from the final agreements on the future relationship with the UK, after December 31, 2020 there will be boundary formalities in traffic to and from the UK anyway.
Negotiations in full swing
In the meantime only 2 months to go
It seems that three more scenarios are possible. The first scenario means a deal Brexit, whereby the EU’s internal market remains open to the British, as well as the British market remains accessible to the member states. Much less cooperation will take place in many areas, such as regulations, security and defense.
The second scenario is the much-discussed no-deal Brexit. In such a case, the UK would leave the EU without a trade deal and trade would henceforth be conducted on an “Australian model”. The EU does not currently have a free trade agreement with Australia, although small agreements exist on specific topics.
The third scenario is a partial deal, according to insiders. This option certainly becomes relevant when time is running out and the power blocks want to reach an agreement at the last minute. The parties can then make temporary agreements on points on which they agree, without these possibly being ratified by the EU.
US elections potentially crucial factor in negotiations
Presidential candidate Joe Biden indicated in September that he is not a fan of Johnson’s Brexit bill, which could overturn parts of the withdrawal agreement. Biden does not see a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland and believes that the British should simply stick to the agreements made earlier with the EU. (Scenario 1 of 3)
However, if current President Donald Trump wins the presidential election, Johnson would feel empowered to go for a no-deal Brexit. The American president is a supporter of Brexit and would prefer to see a renewed trade agreement with London as soon as possible. (Scenario 2)
The winner of the US presidential elections may therefore be a precursor to what Brexit scenario will emerge at the end of this year.
In the meantime, time is running out for the British as they will leave the EU on January 1, 2021.
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